Brief: Situation in
Libya
In February
of 2011, protestors took to the streets of Benghazi, demanding that the ruler
of 42 years, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, make democratic reforms or step down.
Gaddafi’s private security forces met these protests with force, and fired on
the crowds. This situation escalated into a revolution in which NATO supplied
the rebel forces with arms and set up a no-fly zone to protect them from aerial
attacks. Member countries of NATO brought in aircraft carriers and jets to
enforce the no-fly zone. In July 2011, Gaddafi and his son Saif al-Islam
announced that they supported elections and could hold them within three
months, but NATO rejected the offer. On September 16, the National Transitional
Council (NTC) was recognized by the UN as the legal representative of Libya. On
October 20, Colonel Gaddafi was killed during a battle in his hometown. On
October 23, the NTC declared “the liberation of Libya” and the end of the war.
In August
2012, the NTC handed power to the General National Congress. The 200 seat Congress
was elected in July 2012, and it had more liberal, secular, and independent
candidates elected than the Justice and Construction Party, which is aligned
with the Muslim Brotherhood. The chairman of the Congress, Mohamed Magarief, is
currently the interim head of state. The Prime Minister is Mustafa Abu Shagur,
who has promised to make security a priority. The transition to a democratic
government has not been seamless. The country is still fighting against
Islamist militias scattered in various regions, and on September 12, 2012, the
American embassy in Libya was stormed by a mob (and possibly trained military
forces) and the ambassador, Christopher Stevens, as well as 3 aides, were
killed. The violence coincided with protests following the release of a video, The Innocence of Islam, on YouTube,
which mocked the prophet Muhammad. It was later released that protests related
to the video had nothing to do with the attack. The attack was organized and
sophisticated, according to the Libyan government.
Motion: THBT Libya is a failure
Pro:
1.
Western intervention led to more deaths
a.
From the time that NATO got involved in the
Libya conflict until its resolution, approximately 30,000 more lives were lost.
NATO’s weapons and air support only encouraged more violence and continued a
conflict that had already taken thousands of lives.
b.
There is no reason to believe that this
situation will be different from other countries that toppled authoritarian
regimes. In Kosovo, we saw that the post-war regime is liable to be criminal
and corrupt. After the liberation of Eritrea and Ethiopia from a brutal
dictatorship 20 years ago, the countries soon degenerated into authoritarianism
and war. A revolution like this will always lack stability, and those who are
unhappy with the government will simply have another revolution, forcing those
in power to get out of the way or to tighten security.
2.
The intervention in Libya sets a bad precedent
a.
The UN mandate that authorized action in Libya
was supposed to be on the basis of protecting the people of Libya. What this
turned into was full-blown Western interventionism, and the “responsibility to
protect” was used as a pretext for toppling a vulnerable government. NATO
countries overstepped their bounds, which makes future situations like Libya
potentially dangerous and hard to control.
b.
Now there are two harms coming out of Libya:
i.
Nations that we may have attempted to negotiate
with previously see Libya as evidence that the West will not negotiate and will
instead jump to action. These nations will move away from negotiations and
instead start to arm themselves to protect against an invasion
ii.
Since this conflict served no distinct Western
interest, and due to the fact that it is viewed by some as a success, future
administrations of the US and other nations are more likely to take the risk of
sending in forces to topple a dictator, aside from UN protocol or international
law
c.
In the US, Congress is supposed to be the one to
declare a war, and the executive branch went around them to wage war in Libya.
The executive declaring war without represented leaders approving it is not a
good precedent to have for our country. It means future presidents can go to
war wherever and whenever they want.
3.
Security Issues in Libya
a.
The killing of the U.S. ambassador and 3 aides
in Benghazi shows that there is still much to be done in Libya. The new
government has not found a way to control protests and opportunistic militant
groups. If this continues to be the case, it is unlikely that Libya will become
stable anytime in the near future.
b.
In recent weeks (Oct 2012) Salafists have
attacked shrines in Tripoli (capital) and elsewhere. These shrines have been
venerated for centuries by Sufis, who practice a more mystical form of Islam.
Importantly, the Salafists were allowed to destroy these sites for over 48
hours without the ministry of interior or the police lifting a finger to stop
them.
i.
This suggests that extreme Islamists (like the
Salafists) have friends in high places protecting them or that the government’s
security is to weak or disorganized to deal with them
Con:
1.
Libyans have a democratic, moderate government
a.
On September 12, 2012, the General National
Congress elected Mustafa Abushagur, a secular-minded engineering professor, as
prime minister. Another body will write a constitution, with the hopes of
electing a parliament within 18 months.
b.
In the congressional election in July 2012, the
Muslim Brotherhood only gained 17 out of 80 seats, whereas a coalition of
secularists, liberals and milder Islamists won 39 seats. 120 of the 200
2.
This was an organic uprising with multilateral
help
a.
Organic
i.
At its core, the revolution was always a Libyan
struggle. The rebels truly wanted a change of power, and they were willing to
make the sacrifices necessary to achieve success. This was always about Libyans
fighting against an oppressive government, unlike Iraq, which had no organic
uprising before the U.S. invasion
b.
International
i.
This was a multilateral effort of NATO
countries. The U.S. took out Libya’s air defense system and provided the
majority of the intelligence, and France and Britain provided air and naval
assets which struck over 40% of all targets. Italy hosted hundreds of aircraft
at seven airbases.
ii.
This was by no means a U.S. interventionist
effort, which is a nice change from the actions in Iraq and Afghanistan over
the last decade. The actions in Libya displayed international cooperation and
the ability to support a human rights cause without attempting to obtain
selfish gains.
3.
Libya’s economy looks hopeful
a.
One of the biggest concerns during and after the
revolution was the state of the Libyan economy. Oil fields and pipelines had
been damaged, and unemployment and growth were way down. A weak economy can add
to political unrest and frustration. However, the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) in July 2012 estimated that Libya’s GDP (which fell by 60 percent during
the fighting) will grow by more than 116 percent this year (2012), then settle
down to growth of over 13 percent over the following two years.
b.
One of the reasons that Libya’s economy can grow
so quickly has to do with its oil production. Libya has only 6.7 million people
and about 47 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. This allows for a quick
economic recovery, and gives a large cushion for bad politics that might make
poor economic decisions.
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